APPENDIX
8-2
EVENT
TREE ANALYSIS
Figure B8-1 Cold Catastrophic Failure of LPG
Vessel
|
|
|
Immediate Ignition |
|
Delayed Ignition |
|
VCE? |
Event Outcome |
Outcome Frequency |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LPG Release |
yes |
0.9 |
|
|
|
|
Fireball |
0.9 |
|
(no isolation) |
no |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
1 |
yes |
0 |
VCE |
0 |
|
|
|
|
no |
0 |
no |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Flashfire |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unignited Release |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.0 |
Figure B8-2 Cold Catastrophic Failure of Road
Tanker
|
|
|
Immediate Ignition |
|
Delayed Ignition |
|
VCE? |
Event Outcome |
Outcome Frequency |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LPG
Release |
yes |
0.9 |
|
|
|
|
Fireball |
0.9 |
|
(no
isolation) |
no |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
1 |
yes |
0 |
VCE |
0 |
|
|
|
|
no |
0 |
no |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Flashfire |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unignited
Release |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.0 |
Figure B8-3 Cold Partial Failure of LPG Vessel
|
|
|
Immediate Ignition |
|
Delayed Ignition |
|
VCE? |
|
Road Tanker/ LPG Vessel |
|
Flame Impingement |
|
Fire Protection |
Event Outcome |
Outcome Frequency |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Empties Before Failure? |
|
|
|
/Fighting Ineffective |
|
|
|
LPG
Release |
yes |
0.05 |
|
|
|
|
yes |
1 |
|
|
|
|
Jetfire |
0.05 |
|
(no
isolation) |
no |
0.95 |
|
|
|
|
no |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
0.01 |
yes |
0.025 |
BLEVE |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
no |
0.99 |
no |
0.975 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jetfire |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jetfire |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
0.25 |
yes |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
VCE |
0 |
|
|
|
|
no |
0.75 |
no |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
1 |
|
|
|
|
Flashfire & jetfire |
0.24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
no |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
0.01 |
yes |
0.025 |
BLEVE |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
no |
0.99 |
no |
0.975 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Flashfire & jetfire |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Flashfire & jetfire |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unmitigated
Release |
0.71 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
Figure B8-4 Cold Partial Failure of Road Tanker
|
|
|
Immediate Ignition |
|
Delayed Ignition |
|
VCE? |
|
Road Tanker/ LPG Vessel |
|
Flame Impingement |
|
Fire Protection |
Event Outcome |
Outcome Frequency |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Empties Before Failure? |
|
|
|
/Fighting Ineffective |
|
|
|
LPG Release |
yes |
0.05 |
|
|
|
|
yes |
1 |
|
|
|
|
Jetfire |
0.05 |
|
(no isolation) |
no |
0.95 |
|
|
|
|
no |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
0.01 |
yes |
0.025 |
BLEVE |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
no |
0.99 |
no |
0.975 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jetfire |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jetfire |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
0.25 |
yes |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
VCE |
0 |
|
|
|
|
no |
0.75 |
no |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
1 |
|
|
|
|
Flashfire |
0.24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
no |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
0.01 |
yes |
0.025 |
BLEVE |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
no |
0.99 |
no |
0.975 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Flashfire |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Flashfire |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unmitigated Release |
0.71 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
Figure B8-5 Guillotine Failure of Liquid-Inlet
Pipework
|
|
|
Immediate Ignition |
|
Delayed Ignition |
|
VCE? |
|
Road Tanker/ LPG Vessel |
|
Flame Impingement |
|
Fire Protection |
Event Outcome |
Outcome Frequency |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Empties Before Failure? |
|
|
|
/Fighting Ineffective |
|
|
|
LPG Release |
yes |
0.05 |
|
|
|
|
yes |
0 |
|
|
|
|
Jetfire |
0 |
|
(no isolation) |
no |
0.95 |
|
|
|
|
no |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
0.01 |
yes |
0.025 |
BLEVE |
1.25E-05 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
no |
0.99 |
no |
0.975 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jetfire |
0.0005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jetfire |
0.0495 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
0.25 |
yes |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
VCE |
0 |
|
|
|
|
no |
0.75 |
no |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
0 |
|
|
|
|
Flashfire & jetfire |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
no |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
0.01 |
yes |
0.025 |
BLEVE |
6.0E-05 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
no |
0.99 |
no |
0.975 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Flashfire & jetfire |
0.0025 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Flashfire & jetfire |
0.2375 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unmitigated Release |
0.71 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
Figure B8-6 Guillotine Failure of Liquid-Outlet
Pipework
|
|
|
Immediate Ignition |
|
Delayed Ignition |
|
VCE? |
|
Road Tanker/ LPG Vessel |
|
Flame Impingement |
|
Fire Protection |
Event Outcome |
Outcome Frequency |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Empties Before Failure? |
|
|
|
/Fighting Ineffective |
|
|
|
LPG Release |
yes |
0.05 |
|
|
|
|
yes |
0 |
|
|
|
|
Jetfire |
0 |
|
(no isolation) |
no |
0.95 |
|
|
|
|
no |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
0.01 |
yes |
0.025 |
BLEVE |
1.25E-05 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
no |
0.99 |
no |
0.975 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jetfire |
0.0005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jetfire |
0.0495 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
0.25 |
yes |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
VCE |
0 |
|
|
|
|
no |
0.75 |
no |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
0 |
|
|
|
|
Flashfire & jetfire |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
no |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
0.01 |
yes |
0.025 |
BLEVE |
6.0E-05 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
no |
0.99 |
no |
0.975 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Flashfire & jetfire |
0.0025 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Flashfire & jetfire |
0.2375 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unmitigated Release |
0.71 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
Figure B8-7 Failure of Dispenser
|
|
|
Immediate Ignition |
|
Delayed Ignition |
|
VCE? |
|
Road Tanker/ LPG Vessel |
|
Flame Impingement |
|
Fire Protection |
Event Outcome |
Outcome Frequency |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Empties Before Failure? |
|
|
|
/Fighting Ineffective |
|
|
|
LPG Release |
yes |
0.05 |
|
|
|
|
yes |
0 |
|
|
|
|
Jetfire |
0 |
|
(no isolation) |
no |
0.95 |
|
|
|
|
no |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
0.01 |
yes |
0.025 |
BLEVE |
1.25E-05 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
no |
0.99 |
no |
0.975 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jetfire |
0.0005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jetfire |
0.0495 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
0.25 |
yes |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
VCE |
0 |
|
|
|
|
no |
0.75 |
no |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
0 |
|
|
|
|
Flashfire & jetfire |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
no |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
0.01 |
yes |
0.025 |
BLEVE |
6.0E-05 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
no |
0.99 |
no |
0.975 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Flashfire & jetfire |
0.0025 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Flashfire & jetfire |
0.2375 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unmitigated Release |
0.71 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
Figure B8-8 Failure of Flexible Hose during
Underground Vessel Loading
|
|
|
Immediate Ignition |
|
Delayed Ignition |
|
VCE? |
|
Road Tanker/ LPG Vessel |
|
Flame Impingement |
|
Fire Protection |
Event Outcome |
Outcome Frequency |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Empties Before Failure? |
|
|
|
/Fighting Ineffective |
|
|
|
LPG Release |
yes |
0.05 |
|
|
|
|
yes |
0 |
|
|
|
|
Jetfire |
0 |
|
(no isolation) |
no |
0.95 |
|
|
|
|
no |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
0.01 |
yes |
0.025 |
BLEVE |
1.25E-05 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
no |
0.99 |
no |
0.975 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jetfire |
0.0005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jetfire |
0.0495 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
0.25 |
yes |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
VCE |
0 |
|
|
|
|
no |
0.75 |
no |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
0 |
|
|
|
|
Flashfire & jetfire |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
no |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
yes |
0.01 |
yes |
0.025 |
BLEVE |
6.0E-05 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
no |
0.99 |
no |
0.975 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Flashfire & jetfire |
0.0025 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Flashfire & jetfire |
0.2375 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Unmitigated Release |
0.71 |
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1 |
Figure B8-9 Failure of Flexible Hose during
Vehicle Loading
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Immediate Ignition |
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Delayed Ignition |
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VCE? |
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Road Tanker/ LPG Vessel |
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Flame Impingement |
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Fire Protection |
Event Outcome |
Outcome Frequency |
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Empties Before Failure? |
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/Fighting Ineffective |
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LPG Release |
yes |
0.05 |
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yes |
0 |
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Jetfire |
0 |
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(no isolation) |
no |
0.95 |
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no |
1 |
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yes |
0.01 |
yes |
0.025 |
BLEVE |
1.25E-05 |
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no |
0.99 |
no |
0.975 |
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Jetfire |
0.0005 |
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Jetfire |
0.0495 |
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yes |
0.25 |
yes |
0 |
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VCE |
0 |
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no |
0.75 |
no |
1 |
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yes |
0 |
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Flashfire & jetfire |
0 |
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no |
1 |
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yes |
0.01 |
yes |
0.025 |
BLEVE |
6.0E-05 |
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no |
0.99 |
no |
0.975 |
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Flashfire & jetfire |
0.0025 |
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Flashfire & jetfire |
0.2375 |
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Unmitigated Release |
0.71 |
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1 |